In contrast to the frequent press articles that Target’s foot traffic and sales were down mid-to-high single-digits due to consumer backlash over Target’s DEI policy changes, comp-transactions / traffic was down only -2.4%. Comp-sales for the stores were down -5.7%, which was partially offset by a +4.7% in digital sales (which is mainly store-delivery and curbside). As shown in the table below, February was the softest month per Advan traffic, and the period’s reported traffic* was largely in line with the Advan estimate.

Dick’s Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker was unexpected, and despite management’s claim that it would be accretive to earnings, along with a preliminary fiscal Q1 results where comp-sales were above estimates (+4.1% vs expectations of +2.6%), the stock dumped -15%. Our quick thoughts and then our data. First, the near-term accretion was simple math, ahead of the news Dick’s traded at 10.1X EV / EBITDA on a NTM basis, above Foot Locker’s 8.

In our review of Q4 Walmart Inc. results, we highlighted Sam’s compounding success in gaining household share which stems from strong execution on merchandise and service contemporizing (while also benefiting from the favorable macro-consumer trends that are lifting the entire club sector). Today, we shift the focus to Walmart US and its grocery business for this Q1 commentary. (We’ll come back to Walmart’s general merchandise results post Target’s earnings release next week.

DaVita, the dialysis treatment company, had a soft Q1 as volume (treatments per day) in the US declined -0.6%, which was below management’s plan due to a number of external impacts. The KPI also decelerated QoQ by -30 bps, which compares to visits (Advan) slowing by -40 bps on a days-adjusted basis. Dynamics impacting Q1 were a harsh flu season and disruptive weather in Jan / Feb which resulted in missed treatments.

Two weeks back, we wrote about the weak set of Q1 sales results from McDonald’s , Domino’s , Chipotle , Wendy’s, Shake Shack, and others. Last week, the wipeout in fast food (called limited service in industry lingo) broadened to include Sweet Green, Papa John’s, and Restaurant Brands International (i.e. Burger King). We wrote in our earlier articles that the softness was the result of consumer fatigue following compounding inflation and too many price increases by limited-service which has resulted in share-of-stomach shifting from away-from-home consumption to at-home (or grocery).

Better-than-expected quarterly results from Savers Value Village and ThredUp, plus the threat of inflation from tariffs, motivated us to take a look at foot traffic for the secondhand retail sector and its major players. As a reminder, the fiscal stimulus of ’21 and the bout of inflation in ’22 produced very strong years for the sector. So much so that those good times compelled ThredUp to IPO in ’21 and Savers in ’23.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights At a time when many are concerned about a recession and a cutback in consumer spending, Disney once again demonstrated that it is a special place in consumers’ lives and an exceptional business. Domestic park attendance inflected by +300bps to +1% growth. Advan data in the table below shows that the Orlando parks, especially Magic Kingdom, drove the acceleration as hurricanes weren’t disruptive in the period, like the prior quarter.

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By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Amazon’s Q1 results and guidance for Q2 reflect what we are broadly witnessing – relatively stable demand for goods, some pull-forward effects ahead of tariffs, and a lot of uncertainty. Including Leap Year, the North American retail business slowed about -400 bps QoQ to around +8% unit growth and +6% $-volume growth, per our estimate. Average ticket fell -200 bps as: (1) Amazon and its third-party sellers have been highlighting savings and lower prices, and (2) consumables (which are generally lower-priced items) grew at +12%, which is twice the rate of general merchandise (our estimate).

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Floor & Décor Holdings Q1 results showed stability in earnings despite a challenging housing market. However, those challenges combined with the added pressures from tariffs led management to reduce its store openings plan for 2025 from 25 to 20. CEO Tom Taylor said, “If economic conditions worsen from our current expectations, we have the ability to further reduce fiscal 2025 openings.” On the outlook, Taylor said, “This is a bit of unprecedented times.