We forecasted in our review of May retail sales that June’s pace would likely be stronger than May’s; well being a forecaster, we know that we are going to be wrong some times and based on Advan’s foot traffic and transaction data, June looks to be softer AND NOT stronger. (Recall, the retail calendar puts July 5th as the end of the month vs. July 6th last year.) The first half of the period was stronger than the second half; the second half aligned with the extreme temperatures in the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast.

The third issue of The Advan Buysider is now available, featuring updates to the names from previous issues, along with new themes on DIS, CMCSA, PRKS, MGM, WYNN, PSA, HRL, and EXP. As a reminder, The Buysider is designed to provide timely, novel, and impactful insights on specific names and topics using Advan’s data. Download Issue 3 Watch the webinar

In light of our travels around California during the 4th of July week, the current events in California, and our recent insights on convenience stores and weight loss drugs hurting visits to limited-service restaurants (LSR), we turned the “Advan spotlight” on burger-QSR in California. As shown in the following chart, the category’s trend remains soft for June and Q2. The downshift for Burger King and McDonald’s in the 2H of June largely reflects difficult comparisons to last summer when they re-launched the $5 Value Meal.

With the battle for Seven-&-i and its US business ongoing and our recent story about weight loss drug usage hitting fast food, we took a look at recent trends for Convenience and Gas (C&G) retail. As a reminder, the industry has been facing a cyclical economic challenge as fewer motorists are enter the stores to purchase a snack, a six-pack, etc. For the industry, those inside the store visits are where the money is; for example, **Casey’s General Stores **makes $0.

General Mills’ very soft quarterly results, once again, reinforced our viewpoint that category growth for the year, as was the case last year, will be driven by private label and the retailers that excel at it. And so, in addition to scanner data, we recommend watching the foot traffic at Trader Joe’s and Aldi. As the chart shows, traffic for the conventional grocery industry (NAICS-4415) remains in the dumps. By contrast, traffic for TJ’s and Aldi remains robust and very stable.

Advantaged by a strong owned-brands portfolio and fresh offering, Kroger reported better comp-sales (+3.2%) and gross margin for its quarter. The comp increase was also higher than Advan’s +2.9% estimate* and marginally ahead of the industry’s +2.9% per the Census’ monthly report . Kroger enjoys a larger lift from pharmacy (Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) and its fast-growing delivery business (the Ocado sheds). Stripping out the benefit of pharmacy lowers Kroger’s comp-increase to +1.

Universal’s Epic Universe opened in Orlando on Memorial Day Weekend to great fanfare by the press. Since then, the trade press has been less favorable, and so, we looked at Advan’s visitor and spend data to see how Epic is impacting sister Universal Orlando and the other destination theme parks in Orlando. What we see broadly is softness, despite the new park. While our data is preliminary because of the way we are cutting it (Thursday – Monday), the conclusion is supported by our measure of traffic to the Orlando airport (MCO), which shows a slightly better trend in May than the prior months, but nothing that would suggest that a new $8B theme park just opened in the market.

As we previewed in our story about Costco, May retail sales (as measured by the Census Bureau-adjusted) slowed from April’s pace as the tariff pull-forward lapsed and leisure activity quickened (again taking share from spending on goods). Additionally, weather for most of the month and country was absolutely horrid for seasonal sales. Building materials & garden supplies fell -1.1% in May from April +2.1% increase. Advan’s measure for NAICs #44422, which is 11K nursery, garden centers, and farm supply stores around the country, declined a similar amount.

Last week, one of our Advan Buysider names, Chewy , reported fiscal Q1 results, which once again demonstrated improving business momentum and unit economics. As a reminder, Chewy’s market share growth is accelerating due to the accruing benefit of more and more Autoship customers. (That share gain, plus Amazon’s, is further depressing foot traffic to pet specialty retailers.) Chewy’s higher volume in turn is allowing it to improve its fulfillment center (FC) utilization; this is key to improving its unit economics as they stood up too much capacity during the 2020 / ’21 pet boom, which became a drag on profits when the boom, busted.

Despite tremendous noise on trade and the economy, and our ongoing frozen housing market, Restoration Hardware’s fiscal Q1 results and outlook affirmed what Advan’s traffic and transaction data suggest, that is – demand remains undiminished for the high-end brand, as well as peer Arhaus. Written orders, which measures current demand, is no longer disclosed by Restoration Hardware (RH), and so the next quarter’s guidance is a proxy; guidance for fiscal Q2 revenue growth was +15% (on an adjusted-basis) which is above for the April-end period of +12%, or reflective of stronger demand.