As anticipated, Chipotle reported soft results for Q2, including comp-transactions declining -4.9%; total revenue of $3.14B was marginally above Advan’s $3.11B estimate, i.e. darn close. (The -4.9% is -260 bps of deceleration QoQ; Advan’s visits estimate decelerated -245bps QoQ, or roughly the same.) As a reminder, the fast-food industry is facing cyclical and secular pressure on sales – a topic that we presented to UBS’ clients this week, where the cyclical is consumption shifting to less expensive channels like food-at-home and convenience , and the secular is fewer calories consumed due to weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, etc).

As previewed , June retail sales increased at a slower pace than May, which itself was down from April’s; additionally, CPI showed the beginning of tariff costs being passed through to the consumer. Both were modest shifts, and so far in July, things have broadly firmed up, which we suspect is early back-to-school activity. This back-&-forth in momentum has been a persistent pattern since 2022, with seasonal periods picking up nicely (last Christmas was a blow-out holiday, for example) followed by broader and deeper troughs in between.

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Domino’s reported a much improved quarter vs. Q1 with US comp-sales increasing by +3.4%, driven by mix (Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza), positive pricing (COGS increased +4.8%), and comp-transactions (+2.0%). Carryout comp-sales increased +5.8% and delivery, +1.5% with more households choosing the cheaper carryout option. The Parmesan Stuffed is a new item and CEO Russell Weiner said, “Customer praise for this product has been significantly higher than any of our recent product launches.

The Fed’s latest Beige Book was released last week; the Atlanta district’s comments read, “Travel and tourism activity grew modestly, on balance, since the previous report [early June]… Group bookings for some properties did not meet expectations as international travel to the U.S. from Canada, Asia, and Europe, continued to slow. Demand for cruises rebounded from lows earlier this year.” These observations align with our story that Universal’s new Epic Universe theme park hasn’t yet lifted the Orlando Market.

We wrote an insights piece two weeks ago about the improving traffic into convenience and gas station stores (C&G), specifically from the pump pad into the store, and noted that it was a favorable development for CPG suppliers as well as the major operators, Casey’s Stores, Chevron, 7-Eleven, and Circle-K, etc. Today brought Pepsi’s Q2 earnings results, and lo and behold, the trend improved for Frito-Lay’s savory snacks business (Doritos, Tostitos, Lay’s, Fritos, etc.

Two months ago, we reviewed Target’s fiscal 1st quarter results, and before that, the news that they would be accelerating the store opening pace to 30 per year. Since then, the false narrative that boycotts following DEI policy changes were leading to severe traffic declines, along with growing media scrutiny of management’s decisions, including from CNBC with the title – **“Lost their identity: Why Target is struggling to win over shoppers and investors.

Albertsons Companies reported a +2.8% comp-sales increase for its fiscal quarter (June 14th end) driven by pharmacy (GLP-1 drugs) and e-commerce (3P delivery+curbside). Advan estimates that traffic was up modestly at Safeway and Albertsons. Deconstructing all of these figures implies a -3.6% decline in store units-per-transaction (UPTs), assuming that they passed through the +2.3% food-at-home inflation (CPI) in the period. The decline in UPTs is the natural result of the strong GLP usage (fewer calories eaten) and increased frugality.

The chart below shows trailing 7-day visits to 500 large Amazon fulfillment centers in the US, indexed to two days prior to the event in 2024 and 2025. Obviously, it’s the days trailing the event that are the busiest, given that’s when the orders are packed and put into delivery-station trucks. As such, it’s 2025’s large increases in Day-4, T+1, and T+2 that are really impressive. Why such a consumer response?

In light of our Tuesday article on the slower pace for retail sales in June and the tough earnings report by Conagra on Thursday, we wanted to delve into how “advantaged” grocers were doing. (Conagra reported a segment profit decline of -10% for its May-end quarter and profits for the next twelve-month period are expected to decline another 20%-ish.) As the chart below demonstrates, these specialty grocers slowed in mid-June as well.