Notable Hit: (BBBY:NASDAQ) On Thursday January 6, 2022 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) posted worse-than-expected revenues of $1.88bn missing the consensus estimate of $1.97bn or by -4.57% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was down 28% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured a decrease in foot traffic of -15% YoY at its stores for fiscal Q3 2021. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.

Notable Hit: (DRI:NYSE) On Friday December 17, 2021 Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) posted better-than-expected revenues of $2.27n beating the consensus estimate of $2.23bn or by 1.8% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 37% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +47% YoY at its restaurants for fiscal Q2 2022. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.99 on a YoY basis with DRI’s top-line revenue over the last 12 quarters.

Notable Hit 1: (THO:NYSE) On Wednesday December 8, 2021 Thor Industries, Inc. (THO) posted better-than-expected revenues of $3.96bn beating the consensus estimate of $3.48bn or by 13.8% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 56% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in employee foot traffic of +39% YoY at its factories for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $107.

Notable Hit 1: (FIVE:NASDAQ) On Wednesday December 1, 2021 Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) posted better-than-expected revenues of $607.65mm beating the consensus estimate of $561.32mm or by 8.2% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 27.5% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +30.7% YoY at its stores for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $206.

Traffic on Black Friday after Thanksgiving was materially higher across Advan Indices compared with last year’s levels. But visits are still down compared to 2019 records for most of the indices. Clothing and Accessories index saw an increase of 55% yoy but down 15.3% Yo2Y while Furniture and Food Stores including food stores such as Kirkland’s/Restoration Hardware and Kroger’s and Whole Foods respectively have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. The biggest difference has been observed on Gas Stations index, which saw an increase in traffic of over 66% year-over-two-year as the Americans have been still driving more than they ever did.

The lower tranches of MSBAM 2013-C10 have been in trouble since the beginning of the pandemic. Fitch details their latest downgrade in their last update at the end of September. In particular, the downgrade is due to the troubles at Westfield Citrus Park, which is in a friendly foreclosure; Southsdale Center; and the Mall at Tuttle Crossing. Let’s look at these centers in sequence. According to Fitch, Westfield Citrus Park reported June 2021 TTM in-line sales of approximately $120 compared to $379 per sqft at YE 2019.

Notable Hit 1: (BURL:NYSE) On Tuesday November 23 , 2021 Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) posted better-than-expected revenues of $2.3bn beating the consensus estimate of $2.22bn or by 3.44% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 38.19% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +24.53% YoY at its stores for Q3 2021. As a result of beating the sales and EPS, the stock opened at $271.

Notable Hit 1: (ROST:NASDAQ) On Thursday November 19 , 2021 Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) posted better-than-expected revenues of $4.57bn beating the consensus estimate of $4.31bn or by 6% and in the same direction as Advan’s forecasted sales. The revenue was up 22% YoY - Advan’s foot traffic data captured an increase in foot traffic of +32% YoY at its stores for Q3 2021. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.

Advan has been flagging an unprecedented demand in gasoline as early as February 2021. Unsurprisingly, gasoline prices have been following traffic (ie demand) at the gas stations in lockstep, since we have started tracking gas station traffic in 2016. The graph below shows gasoline prices overlaid with Advan Miles Driven index: We can speculate about the reasons for the surge in demand: more people are driving to work instead of using mass transit; more are traveling by car instead of flying when possible; more are just not working or taking trips when they can; people moved out of city centers where they didn’t regularly use a car and are now driving for groceries, run errands etc.

The US borders finally opened on November 8. Did that result in a material influx of tourists that will help increase hotel and retail traffic? Not yet… Let’s review 5 airports that showcase both domestic and international travel: LAX and ORD (Chicago O’Hare) that capture international visitors from the Asia-Pacific region, and JFK and EWR (Newark) that capture traffic from Europe; plus LGA (LaGuardia) which has mostly domestic traffic for comparison.