Growth in all of Amazon’s reported revenue lines accelerated for Q2, save AWS, which held at +17% growth (its 2-year rate improved by +230 bps QoQ). Focusing on just US eCommerce, paid units increased around +12% with sales a couple points less due to lowered prices on general merchandise and a shift in the sales mix to consumables, which generally have a lower average price as well as a lower merchandise margin rate.

Most will know that the telecommunications industry is converging and transforming via new networks. By converging, we mean that legacy wireless brands are rapidly encroaching on cable’s broadband business with both new fiber builds and wireless broadband (5G fixed wireless), and cable is using Verizon’s network (a wholesale relationship) to offer wireless service and encroach on legacy wireless. Interesting, this week T-Mobile opened its network to cable to sell wireless service to small- to mid-sized enterprises.

As anticipated, Chipotle reported soft results for Q2, including comp-transactions declining -4.9%; total revenue of $3.14B was marginally above Advan’s $3.11B estimate, i.e. darn close. (The -4.9% is -260 bps of deceleration QoQ; Advan’s visits estimate decelerated -245bps QoQ, or roughly the same.) As a reminder, the fast-food industry is facing cyclical and secular pressure on sales – a topic that we presented to UBS’ clients this week, where the cyclical is consumption shifting to less expensive channels like food-at-home and convenience , and the secular is fewer calories consumed due to weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, etc).

Domino’s reported a much improved quarter vs. Q1 with US comp-sales increasing by +3.4%, driven by mix (Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza), positive pricing (COGS increased +4.8%), and comp-transactions (+2.0%). Carryout comp-sales increased +5.8% and delivery, +1.5% with more households choosing the cheaper carryout option. The Parmesan Stuffed is a new item and CEO Russell Weiner said, “Customer praise for this product has been significantly higher than any of our recent product launches.

The chart below shows trailing 7-day visits to 500 large Amazon fulfillment centers in the US, indexed to two days prior to the event in 2024 and 2025. Obviously, it’s the days trailing the event that are the busiest, given that’s when the orders are packed and put into delivery-station trucks. As such, it’s 2025’s large increases in Day-4, T+1, and T+2 that are really impressive. Why such a consumer response?

In light of our Tuesday article on the slower pace for retail sales in June and the tough earnings report by Conagra on Thursday, we wanted to delve into how “advantaged” grocers were doing. (Conagra reported a segment profit decline of -10% for its May-end quarter and profits for the next twelve-month period are expected to decline another 20%-ish.) As the chart below demonstrates, these specialty grocers slowed in mid-June as well.

Tuesday’s article previewing June retail sales, along with some hypotheses for why the month appears to be a deceleration from May’s pace, solicited some questions about the athleisure category. For athleisure, there was also a slowdown starting June 12th, similar to what we shared yesterday. Vuori’s deceleration is most abrupt. Lululemon and Alo Yoga have drifted back to their March pace; perhaps the bump they experienced in April and May was pull-forward with consumers securing coveted items before tariffed goods hit the shelves.

We forecasted in our review of May retail sales that June’s pace would likely be stronger than May’s; well being a forecaster, we know that we are going to be wrong some times and based on Advan’s foot traffic and transaction data, June looks to be softer AND NOT stronger. (Recall, the retail calendar puts July 5th as the end of the month vs. July 6th last year.) The first half of the period was stronger than the second half; the second half aligned with the extreme temperatures in the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast.

In light of our travels around California during the 4th of July week, the current events in California, and our recent insights on convenience stores and weight loss drugs hurting visits to limited-service restaurants (LSR), we turned the “Advan spotlight” on burger-QSR in California. As shown in the following chart, the category’s trend remains soft for June and Q2. The downshift for Burger King and McDonald’s in the 2H of June largely reflects difficult comparisons to last summer when they re-launched the $5 Value Meal.

With the battle for Seven-&-i and its US business ongoing and our recent story about weight loss drug usage hitting fast food, we took a look at recent trends for Convenience and Gas (C&G) retail. As a reminder, the industry has been facing a cyclical economic challenge as fewer motorists are enter the stores to purchase a snack, a six-pack, etc. For the industry, those inside the store visits are where the money is; for example, **Casey’s General Stores **makes $0.