Building on previous posts from Advan Research and Eigen10 Advisors using anonymized cell phone movement over time to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on various real estate property segments, this week we explore the different experiences metro areas have had returning to the office. The market areas were chosen to represent a cross-section of the country, which had their own set of stay in place orders, and in turn, timing of a return to work.

Monday was the first day non-essential office workers could return to work in Boston. There was NO rush back to the office. Using mobile tracking data from Advan Research, overall foot traffic was up 7.3% in the Seaport waterfront last week compared to 2 weeks ago. Compared to one-year ago, foot traffic is down 83%. Numerous employers have pushed back their plans to return to the office between Independence Day and Labor Day, significantly limiting overall foot traffic for the foreseeable future.

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This week in our Covid-19 report using foot traffic data from Advan we examine the impact of the virus on student housing. We looked at three student housing buildings, located in College Station (Texas A&M), Boulder (University of Colorado) and Syracuse. All three universities sent students home and switched to online learning in mid-March. Knowing how quickly tenants reacted to the shutdown and when they come back allows owners, operators and leasing agents to make focused decisions that could potentially enhance value and lead to outperformance.

Over the past weeks we have been working on new ways to analyze foot traffic, in order to help our clients understand how patterns of movement are changing, and what this means for businesses. As part of our COVID-19 package we have developed over 200 indices for multiple sectors and industries including restaurants, grocery stores, electronics, cloth-ing/accessories. These sectors can be segmented by US state as a way to visualize the response to COVID19 by using foot traffic as a proxy for social distancing.

Average daily traffic to Amazon warehouses spiked dramatically in March as the retailer ramped up its staff. Average daily traffic in March was up 43% compared to year earlier, far outstripping seasonal staffing increases. In the first few days of April the number of Amazon employees seen at their warehouses has continued to grow, as demand for home delivery surges, with increasing numbers of people following strict orders from local authorities to stay home.

As we continue our trip across the property types analyzing the change in foot traffic using Advan data and the impact of Covid-19 on commercial real estate, Eigen 10 advisors examines the industrial property sector this week. The data this week comes from the Port of LA and an industrial warehouse park outside of Chicago. The industrial park is a mix of food distribution, light manufacturing, auto part distribution and other uses.

Last week using data from Advan we showed the impact of Covid-19 on retail real estate. Our analysis this week looks at the impact of the virus on office real estate. Using data from Advan that tracks anonymized cell phone movement over time, Eigen10 Advisors examined the change in foot traffic for a New York City office building. The building’s vacancy rate did not change significantly between first quarter 2019 and 2020, from low single digits to mid-single digits.

The coronavirus pandemic that is reverberating across the country and the globe has impacted commercial real estate in ways unforeseen from previous “black swan” events. This impact has not been even across sectors or markets or even subsectors within a property type. Fortunately, with today’s technology and analytics we are able assess some of the impact as it is happening rather than waiting in arrears for the data. Using data from Advan that tracks anonymized cell phone movement over time, Eigen10 Advisors examined the change in foot traffic at a sample of different types of retail centers in different markets.

The New York auto show, due to take place in April at the Jacob Javits Center, has been postponed until late August. Is this just a temporary setback for the Javits center - one that is likely to be seen across all convention centers, as the appetite for large gatherings dwindles with the spread of COVID-19? Or is it a sign of a longer term hit to the convention industry as a whole?