Despite dismal sentiment about the low-end consumer and consumer confidence, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Five Below blew past Wall Street expectations on comp-store sales, with both comp-ticket and comp-transactions driving a material improvement in the 2- and 3-year comp-store sales trend as shown in the table below. With Dollar General’s results, we wrote about the upside stemming from trade-in, share-of-stomach gains from the fast food channel, and better retail execution / fundamentals.

As was anticipated by Advan’s data, Costco reported another strong comp-store sales increase for May (+5.5%), but at a touch lower rate than the March / April trend of +7.2% / +8.6% (adjusted) which benefited from pull-forward on large ticket items which consumer purchased to get in front of prices increases resulting from tariffs. General merchandise comp sales, which is where the pull-forward happened, went from +10% in March / April to around +5%.

Dollar General results were stronger than expected, including Advan’s. Comp-sales increased by +2.4%, whereas we expected a +1.2% increase. Our estimate “miss” was a result of General closing an unusually large number (168) of dog stores. General typically closes 90 stores annually. Thus, this cycle was 7.5X greater, which adversely impacted foot traffic, but which also likely juiced the comp as the dogs were no longer a drag. General also only opened 156 new locations vs.

Fiscal Q1 comp-sales results for off-price retailers were softer across the board due to a moderation in traffic. Traffic per location was slightly up for Burlington and HomeGoods and slightly down for TJ Maxx and Ross Dress for Less (per Advan). Results for the traditional department stores were less bad. In sum, this demonstrates that the share transfer from traditional to off-price slowed. In our view, this is the result of the traditional department stores executing better, rather than off-price brands executing “less well.

Lowe’s and Home Depot reported relatively stable results in what is a downbeat housing and home improvement market, as is shown by industry traffic in the chart below. Of note, both benefited from a pull-forward of larger ticket durable goods (appliances) ahead of any price increases resulting from tariffs; the other big-ticket categories like flooring, kitchen, and bath remain in a slump. Commercial building was the strongest end-market as demonstrated by Home Depot Supply (HDS) outperformance.

Dick’s Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker was unexpected, and despite management’s claim that it would be accretive to earnings, along with a preliminary fiscal Q1 results where comp-sales were above estimates (+4.1% vs expectations of +2.6%), the stock dumped -15%. Our quick thoughts and then our data. First, the near-term accretion was simple math, ahead of the news Dick’s traded at 10.1X EV / EBITDA on a NTM basis, above Foot Locker’s 8.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Amazon’s Q1 results and guidance for Q2 reflect what we are broadly witnessing – relatively stable demand for goods, some pull-forward effects ahead of tariffs, and a lot of uncertainty. Including Leap Year, the North American retail business slowed about -400 bps QoQ to around +8% unit growth and +6% $-volume growth, per our estimate. Average ticket fell -200 bps as: (1) Amazon and its third-party sellers have been highlighting savings and lower prices, and (2) consumables (which are generally lower-priced items) grew at +12%, which is twice the rate of general merchandise (our estimate).

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights As anticipated, March was a strong month for retail sales per the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report, and no, it wasn’t all due to pull-forward effects and pre-buying ahead of tariffs as we showed earlier . Yes, there was pull-forward in auto, furniture, and electronics but the month was also better for other general merchandise categories and apparel as well. We attribute that improvement (beyond pull-forward) to warmer temperatures after a harsh February and early March, and an overall strong spring selling season despite Easter’s timing.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights Dollar Tree reported an improvement in its comp-store sales trend due to an improvement in its discretionary business (as did Dollar General, Walmart, and Target). The discretionary comp increased by +0.4%, the first positive number of the year; moreover, its 2- and 3-year trend also improved. The earnings release quotes CEO Mike Creedon saying, “2024 [finished] on a high note with strong execution at Dollar Tree as growing customer acceptance of our expanded assortment drove sales momentum.

By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights In the context of a market that grew by +3.2% in value and +2.1% in volume, Advan took a look at Publix’s and General Mills’ Q4 results, along with two smaller regional grocers in California – Smart & Final and Stater Bros, brands that we shop and that have been in the news. The results and data from all four reinforce one of our 2025 themes: the year is going to be a difficult one for the industry with (1) consumers increasing their loyalty to retailers that have a strong private label and produce offerings and (2) increased promotions to retain customers by those grocers on the losing side, with those promos being concentrated on the national CPG brands.