Malls around the US suffered a significant blow during what is usually the busiest shopping weekend of the year. Foot traffic was down 41% year-over-year on Black Friday and 45% on Saturday. As we reported in our blog post last week, there was a pick-up in traffic during the first three weeks of November as many people opted to take care of their shopping sooner, in order to beat the rush and in anticipation of lock-down orders across the country.

In a previous blog post we talked about how the home improvement sector has been one of the bright spots in the pandemic. Year-over-year foot traffic to building material retailers was up 26% in September. Given this trend, we wanted to look in more detail at one of the most popular companies in the home improvement sector - Ikea. While foot traffic at Ikea stores fell to 0 between April and June, once stores reopened traffic rebounded almost immediately to pre-pandemic levels.

There’s no question that the retail sector has been hit hard this year. Foot traffic at Macy’s, which was already struggling prior to the pandemic, was down 64% last quarter compared to the same quarter in 2019. Like many of its peers, Macy’s has relied on its online business to bolster revenues during a period when many of its stores were closed. But, although overall sales have slumped, an interesting trend has emerged for those who do visit stores.

What does a COVID recovery look like for businesses? 6 months after the initial lock-down we know that, in the US, the journey has been remarkably different for different types of businesses. Our foot traffic indices capture trends that show just how varied the path has been. We looked at the percentage change in foot traffic for 5 different sectors during each month of this year. Starting in March, of those we analyzed, the sectors most quickly impacted were clothing & accessories.

As a continuation of our previous analysis Path to Recovery Far from Clear , we updated the data to show how the foot traffic trend at consumer discretionary businesses varies in three states: California, New York and Texas. The US faces a deep coronavirus crisis as new cases are surging to record highs in many states. Texas was one of the first states to reopen in May with restaurants, retail stores, malls and even theaters to allow to reopen at limited capacity.

For our fourth post in our summer series, we switch to what we would broadly term essential retailers. Big box stores such as CostCo and Sam’s Club were early winners in the pandemic era as many of us stocked up in preparation for an anticipated period of lock-down. Below, a chart for Costco foot traffic since January shows a familiar story. A peak in late March, followed by a drop through April, as lock-downs were imposed and stores restricted the number of people who could enter.

In this third blog post of our summer series, we review two different measures of economic activity that can help paint an overall picture of consumer trends. Measuring foot traffic at consumer discretionary businesses helps us understand the extent to which people are back to shopping for non-essentials - an indicator for increasing flexibility of movement and confidence in the outlook. During April and May there was a massive year-over-year drop in visits to non-essential locations.

With a decrease in social distancing measures across most states, and markets reaching record highs, the past couple of weeks had felt like a tentative breakthrough after months of lockdown and uncertainty. Yet news from the Fed today that they would hold rates steady for the foreseeable future and another heavy week for jobless claims led to a 5% drop in the Nasdaq. The fall of 1,400 points sent stocks towards their worst day for markets since mid-March.

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Recent news reports have highlighted an increase in foot traffic for CostCo as the spread of the coronavirus spurs people to stock up on essentials. Some analysis has put the number of visitors to CotsCo stores in the US up 72% year-over-year. At Advan, we ran a detailed analysis of true foot traffic at CostCo. The graph below shows average daily traffic for each month since October 2015, with year-over-year changes overlaid.