Advan has launched its SpendView™ geographic visualization product. This shows historical brand and location level, as well as consumer spending from a zip code / DMA / regional level (within where the spender lives). This is based on our panel of over 120M debit and credit cards. We then aggregate that spending by retailer brand and on- vs. off-line in terms of the utilized channel of a given brand. The charts below contrast Walmart and Amazon, August 2025 vs.

Darden’s fiscal Q1 results were solid, observed traffic (Advan) increased +3.7% at Olive Garden and reported comp-traffic was +3.6% (with catering). Focusing on just Olive Garden, delivery (both the meals and the fees) added around +140bps to comp-sales, and price / mix another +90bps, to make up the +5.9% reported comp-sales increase. Excluding delivery, average check was lifted by pricing, but offset by mix to value offers / portions and less alcohol.

As expected, observed foot traffic and retail sales slowed slightly from July’s strong back-to-school showing; however, contrary to our expectation that it would slow further following back-to-school, the first half of September has demonstrated improved foot traffic momentum, especially at Walmart. We last wrote about Walmart two weeks ago after CEO Doug McMillon’s very favorable commentary at the Goldman Sachs’ investor conference. Walmart’s sustained strong foot traffic trend demonstrates that its compelling value messaging and consumers’ even greater sensitivity to inflation are leading to more foot traffic for the brand.

As of late, we’ve been writing about the improving demand for housing-related retail , with the trend up after being in the dumps since 2022. We also see evidence of that improvement in the building confidence of the management teams of the related principal retailers in to the form of increased capital outlays– **Lowe’s **acquisitions of sheet rock distributor Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, and Home Depot’s $24B acquisitions of SRS and GMS.

Following our note on **7-Eleven **and its new store prototype and potential to improve its inside-the-store contribution to sales, in addition to our story about drive-through coffee and QSR, here we touch on the strong Q2 results from **Casey’s General Store **and the improving trend for Circle K (Alimentation Couche-Tard). Casey’s CEO Darren Rebelez, “We saw positive traffic growth as guests responded well to our innovation and promotional activity in the prepared food and dispensed beverage category.

Lots of change in the wholesale club arena as we’ve been writing about , the accelerating pace of expansion, the accelerating embrace of multichannel, proof of membership at the door, scan & go, and more. Longer store hours is the latest change. In May, Sam’s opened its cafes an hour earlier. Club hours are now 10-8 for all members. At the end of June, Costco began opening its doors earlier (9:00 AM) to Executive Members, and extended closing time by an hour on Saturdays.

One year ago, Brian Niccol stepped into the CEO role at Starbucks, pledging to return the company “back to Starbucks” with a particular focus on reclaiming the 3rd Place through making the locations less busy (imagine that), better serviced, better maintained, and comfy. The wage ($500M) and location remodel investments ($150K each) are substantial. The location makeovers (1000) include sound insulation, rugs, dimmer lighting, more seating, more charging points, cozy dark wood paneling, and more.

Like the seasons, in the “investor world” following Labor Day, each year brings two dueling must-attend investor conferences, the Barclays’ Back to School Conference and Goldman’s Global Retailing Conference. The conferences are really not about the webcasted presentations; it’s the management 1:1 time that draws in hundreds of buysiders to each event. How a buyside investor chooses is typically determined by the “weight of their book.” (In the future, maybe this provides another opportunity for “digital twins.

Lots going on in the sneaker space with Dick’s Sporting Goods set to close on Foot Locker on September 8th and fiscal quarter results showing sequential improvement for the major retailers (save WSS which is weighted to the low- to moderate-Hispanic consumer). Part of the better sales is lift was due to the broadly strong back-to-school season that we’ve been reporting on, the other part of it is tariff cost pass-through are driving comp-ticket; average transaction increased +4.

Fiscal Q2 results showed a markedly better pace of sales for off-price, led by Burlington (as we had previewed ). The gains were on a 1-, 2-, and 3- year basis as the table below demonstrates. Additionally, off-price’s acceleration wasn’t to the detriment of legacy department stores. If off-price was experiencing a big trade-down benefit, it would hit legacy department stores hard given that the three are 50% larger, in aggregate, than the legacy names.