Predicting the 2021 Kentucky Derby! (Well, attendance levels anyway…)

The oldest continuously held major sporting event in the United States, the Kentucky Derby had enjoyed steady growth from 2016 to 2019, but in 2020… well, we all know what happened last year.

As the world opens up, it’s interesting – not just for Churchill Downs, but to understand the sentiment of all Americans – to see how the attendance at the Derby is shaping up this year.

Here we are showing Advan’s measured attendance for each Thursday prior to Derby Day (traditionally the first Saturday in May) in order to compare with the last available data point: yesterday, Thursday April 29, 2021.

Each year since 2015, Thursday’s traffic has been a good predictor for the peak traffic on Saturday, producing a number that’s about half of the official attendance as the Run for the Roses gets underway.

the Kentucky Derby - visitors

As you can see, we are not back to normal levels yet, but it will be interesting to see how the final numbers shake out. In any case, it is refreshing to see that America is (almost) back to business as usual. Riders up!

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About Advan

Advan is the leader in the financial and real estate industries, enabling participants to analyze foot traffic data across multiple sectors, including retail, hospitality, consumer services, energy, technology, healthcare, REITS, financials and others. Advan derives its datasets using multi parameter models that analyze cellphone location data crossed with curated geofenced areas.

Top tier institutional investors spanning from quantitative hedge funds to fundamental asset managers have been the main consumers of Advan’s products.