Vail Resorts Faces Headwinds: Ski Industry Trends

Vail Resorts, a leader in the ski industry, has long been defined by its aggressive expansion strategy and the introduction of the Epic Pass, which revolutionized how skiers access multiple destinations. However, recent challenges, including labor disputes, operational issues, and competition from alternative passes suggest that the company's dominant position is facing mounting pressure.

A recent Wall Street Journal report highlights that Vail Resorts saw a decline in Epic Pass sales for the first time, marking a shift that could have long-term implications. At the same time, Advan’s foot traffic data paints a broader picture of the challenges within the ski industry.

Analyzing Foot Traffic Trends at Vail Resorts

According to Advan’s location intelligence data, year over year (YoY) visits to Vail properties experienced notable declines for most of 2023, with some of the most significant drops occurring in traditionally peak months:

December 2023 saw a 10% YoY decline, aligning with the holiday-season issues, including a delayed opening due to warmer-and-rainier than usual weather.

January 2024 continued the trend, down 7% YoY, as ongoing dissatisfaction with Vail’s management decisions likely contributed to reduced skier turnout.

February 2024, however, marked a 1% increase, as ski conditions improved.

March 2024, typically a strong period, still saw a 5% decline, reinforcing the broader trend of weakening demand.

April 2024 - which was the most alarming drop - with a 12% decrease, possibly due to poor late-season snow conditions or lingering reputational damage from Vail’s operational struggles, or maybe a combination of both.

June through November 2024 all show positive YoY growth, indicating that the industry may be regaining momentum.

December 2024 saw an 8% increase in visits, potentially reflecting adjustments made by Vail Resorts to address customer concerns, and despite the strike at Park City Resort that was initiated on Decemeber 27 and left skiers frustrated with long wait times and limited open terrain.

What’s Driving These Declines?

The data from Advan support the concerns raised in the WSJ article:

1 - Saturation and Competition: The ski industry is seeing an increase in competitors offering alternative multi-resort passes, making it harder for Vail to maintain its customer base.

2 - Pricing Challenges: With Epic Pass prices increasing annually, some skiers are opting out in favor of other destinations or even backcountry skiing.

3 - Operational Struggles: The Park City strike revealed deeper issues in labor relations and staffing shortages, which may have deterred some visitors from returning.

4 - Weather and Snowfall Variability: Poor snowfall, particularly at Whistler Blackcomb, has also played a role in driving down visitation numbers.

A Critical Inflection Point

Vail Resorts transformed the ski industry with the Epic Pass, but the latest data indicates that cracks are forming in its dominance. While recent foot traffic trends highlight significant declines, a potential recovery could be on the horizon if Vail successfully addresses its labor issues, improves operational efficiency, and offers better value to its customers.

As we are heading towards the middle of 2024-25 ski season, all eyes will be on whether Vail can turn the tide or if its competitors will continue chipping away at its once-invalnerable market position.

For businesses, investors, and ski enthusiasts, monitoring foot traffic data from Advan will remain an essential tool for understanding the evolving landscape of the ski industry.

*A previous version of this article stated that the strike began in December 2023 as opposed to December 2024

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