By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Amazon’s Q1 results and guidance for Q2 reflect what we are broadly witnessing – relatively stable demand for goods, some pull-forward effects ahead of tariffs, and a lot of uncertainty. Including Leap Year, the North American retail business slowed about...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
As anticipated, March was a strong month for retail sales per the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales report, and no, it wasn’t all due to pull-forward effects and pre-buying ahead of tariffs as we showed earlier. Yes, there was pull-forward in auto,...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Dollar Tree reported an improvement in its comp-store sales trend due to an improvement in its discretionary business (as did Dollar General, Walmart, and Target). The discretionary comp increased by +0.4%, the first positive number of the year; moreover,...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
In the context of a market that grew by +3.2% in value and +2.1% in volume, Advan took a look at Publix’s and General Mills’ Q4 results, along with two smaller regional grocers in California – Smart & Final and Stater Bros, brands that we shop and that...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings reported solid FQ4 results with adjusted sales growth of +9% to $667M (just shy of Advan’s estimate of $672M). Growth was driven by a +2.8% comp-sales increase and 47 (+9%) more stores over the past year, including...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Over the weekend, again numerous press and blog reports declared Target’s store traffic to be down due to boycotts and upset feelings over Target’s messaging around DEI. However, those reports cite a traffic decline YoY against a week last year that...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Dollar General reported $10.2B revenue for Q4, up +5.0% YoY, and above our +3.9% estimate* (120bps Moe, 97% correlation). Comp-sales increased +1.2% driven by consumables (+2.7%). The non-consumables comp was roughly flat, the best result since early 202...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Casey’s General Stores, Inc reported strong quarterly results for its “inside” business with comp-sales on prepared food & dispensed beverages increasing 4.7% and grocery & general merchandise increasing 3.3%. As a reminder, the gas & convenience channel...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Kohl’s: Quarterly sales were “less bad” at a decline (-9.4%) than our preview (we said -14%). In our preview, we also forecasted that incoming CEO Ashley Buchanan would set a very low bar on forward expectations, he did. Revenue for 2025 was guided for a...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. reported solid results, including an underlying sales increase of 6% based upon a 6.4% comp-sales increase and improved gross margin rate. The comp-sales increase was composed of increases of 4.4% in comp-ticket, 2.0% in...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
Last week’s analysis included management’s comments relative to any DEI backlash that they were seeing no impact to their business. However, over the weekend, media outlets wrote about a negative impact on Target store traffic and business from the...
By Thomas Paulson, Head of Market Insights
To say that this is a dynamic time for grocery retail is a classic underbilling given the inflationary spiral coming out of the pandemic, the substantial share-of-stomach lost by conventional brands to private-label led retailers such as Trader Joe’s and...
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